A primary vote for any of the major parties is a vote for the status quo. The only way to vote for change on October 19th is to vote 1-5 for Independents for Canberra. Then put other independents, then any minor parties that you can support, and then put the major parties last. I recommend putting the incumbents last within their party.
Let me explain.
In the ACT, we vote using a “single transferable vote” system of voting we call the Hare-Clark electoral system. Everyone gets a single and equal vote. That vote transfers between candidates in the order you choose. It transfers at full value (1 whole vote) until it is used to elect someone as high on your list as possible. Then it splits up. Most of it is “used up” to elect that person. The leftover bit continues to transfer down the line of your preferences.
How does your vote keep working
The amount your vote splits in to depends on how much of it that first elected candidate needed. Let’s say that 0.8 of your vote was needed, leaving 0.2 of your single vote still working away – if you let it that is.
Everyone’s 0.2 of a vote transfers to the next candidate on each person’s ballot. It continues like this until it elects someone else, or five members are elected in your area, or – and this is where some of your vote can be lost – it runs out of preferences to move to. In that case, your 0.2 part of the single transferable vote is exhausted, and does no more work. You only got 80% as much of a say as other people.
What happens when people vote for the major parties?
Consider someone who votes 1-5 for a major party then 6-10 for Independents for Canberra. We all know that two candidates from each major party are elected in most electorates. The first one to get elected might diminish your single transferable vote down by 80% to 0.2. The second one will diminish your vote even further. Let’s say it uses another 80% of the 0.2, leaving you with only 0.016 of a vote!
These small fragments of the original single transferable vote bounce around. They are not enough to get an Independent over the line. They tend to bounce around the major party candidates until someone limps into the Assembly.
How does voting 1-5 for Independents for Canberra help?
Now consider the reverse. A number of people vote 1-5 for Independents for Canberra, and 6-10 for a major party of their individual choice. If enough people want to elect an independent, this numbering ensures that the votes will all stay with the most popular IFC candidate and elects them. The remaining portion – say 0.2 – will then filter back to the major parties where it is still strong enough to elect one or even two candidates there.
What about the opposition though – aren’t they a chance?
Here are the percentages of votes (and percentage of the Assembly seats they won) that the major parties got in the last two elections:
| Labor | Liberal | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 votes | 38.4% | 36.7% | 10.3% |
| 2016 seats | 12 | 11 | 2 |
| 2016 representation | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| 2020 votes | 37.8% | 33.8% | 13.5% |
| 2020 seats | 10 | 9 | 6 |
| 2020 representation | 40% | 36% | 24% |
You can see that the Liberals at 33.8% are so far behind the Labor/Greens coalition at 51.2%. They would need to pick up four seats to take power from the government. Any protest vote for the Liberals might shuffle how many are on each side, but barring a miracle, it isn’t going to change the government, or the political landscape.
The same goes for the Greens. They increased their seats from 2 to a whopping 6 by increasing their vote from 10.3% to 13.5%. Greens are massively over-represented with their 13.5% of the vote earning them 24% of the Assembly seats. All those fragments of single transferable votes mentioned above are what got them there.
All this means that given our political landscape and voting system, even liberal voters who don’t put independents before the liberals aren’t contributing to a change.
So why is Independents for Canberra any different?
This election is different. Independents have got organised and are working in the system the major parties set up to benefit parties. If you want change, Independents for Canberra have given you that choice.
If people vote in the way described above to make their vote work as long and hard as possible, it is likely that a few IFC candidates across Canberra will get elected, and that’s all we need. We aren’t trying to form a government. We want to be able to hold the government of the day to account, regardless of who that is.
Regardless of who your number 6 through 10 votes go to, your 1 through 5 votes are where change happens.